The Second Law of Barbarian Dynamics.

Barbarians roam,
Rome falls, monks preserve the light,
Cluny rises, bright.

The fundamental political tension of the moment seems to be about what to do with this old building?i Do we try to fix it, holding onto the remnants of our mound-building forefathers, or do we demolish it and start fresh?

Indeed, much of the current LEFT<->RIGHTii political divide feels reducible to this distinction: the Trumpian Right trying to preserve our WASPian vapours from escaping the jar, and the Bahamian Left trying to spark the forest fire and get on with the show.iii Both seem to implicitly agree that our best days are behind us, but they fundamentally disagree on whether there’s anything worth saving.

Of course there’s also the political economy of the tension to consider: as ever, we can clearly see a competition between (at least) two elite political factionsiv with one aligning itself with the bureaucratic middle class contra the working classv / lower class, while the other aligns itself with the working class / lower class against the bureaucratic class. It’s quite the contest!vi

But who will win? It probably depends on our time horizons for settling this little wager… Indeed, we would do well to crib a few notes from the ancient (or modern) Chinese, what with their sophisticated understandings of the rises and falls of Dynasties through the ages:

1. Founding of a New Dynasty: This stage is marked by strong leadership, military conquest,
and the establishment of a new ruling family. The new dynasty often brings initial prosperity
and reforms.
2. Period of Stability and Peak Prosperity: During this phase, the dynasty reaches its zenith. The economy is strong, cultural achievements flourish, and the government is stable and effective.
3. Decline of the Dynasty: Over time, the dynasty begins to weaken. Corruption, mismanagement, and natural disasters contribute to the decline. The central government’s power diminishes, leading to internal strife.
4. Rebellion or Invasion: (YOU ARE HERE)vii As the dynasty weakens, it becomes vulnerable to internal rebellions and external invasions. Social unrest grows, and rival factions vie for power.
5. Collapse of the Dynasty: The weakened dynasty eventually collapses, often amid widespread chaos. This leads to a period of disorder, where no central authority holds power.
6. Chaos and the Rise of a New Dynasty: After a period of anarchy and fragmentation, a new leader emerges, unifies the country, and establishes a new dynasty, restarting the cycle.

All of which brings us neatly to (yet another) symptom of our present historical moment: immigration, which we can only too clearly see from the Chinese Dynastic Cycle above has absolutely nothing to do with it being “good” or “bad”, or even “too much” or “too little”, to say nothing of “legal” or “illegal”. It’s just thermodynamics (or “barbarian dynamics” if you will).viii Nature abhors a vacuum, and since ~1965 we’ve had a dynastic decline expressed as meaning vacuum expressed as a fertility vacuumix and it’s now becoming pretty widely accepted wisdom that we can only survive on these fumes of yesteryear for so much longer.x

So we might say that now that the immigration “debate” is really more a question of “from where,” to the extent we vacuums can even decide such things for themselves, and to which we can reasonably consider that a porous US Southern border is probably the least terrible option? I mean, it’s not like Mexicans are trying to turn America into a cvasi-Shariac State! So we can probably even concede this point to the Bahamian Left that a declining civilisation isn’t just going to pull itself up by its own bootstraps anytime soon, and that we need some barbarian tenacity to keep our softness in check.xi

Unfortunately for those deciding where to point the barbs (to the extent “possible“), if it’s the lowly untermenschen that need prodding, so do the corrupt bureaucrats! But if there’s only enough pointiness for one or the other, what’s an unaligned elite to do?

Let the Universe decide? Preserve the light? Until Cluny rises, bright?

  1. In local terms, this manifests all too literally with the “debate” about whether or not to demolish perfectly beautiful and functional buildings that are just temporarily between uses, such as the former Royal Alberta Museum building designed by Raymond O. Harrison:

    ↩
  2. Facile and simplistic though such manichean rigidity may be, it can provide a useful jumping off point for further investigation. ↩
  3. Where’s the show going? Well, obviously to feudalism (aka micro-monarchy) but with a quick pit stop at tyranny first. Not that you need to worry! Worrying isn’t for men. Not now, not ever. Besides, you didn’t think this would be quick and painless, did you? ↩
  4. As could only ever be possible regardless of ostensible political structure, whether “democracy” or “monarchy” or what have you. ↩
  5. For all intents and purposes the working class includes entrepreneurial class. ↩
  6. If therefore zero-sum… ↩
  7. Or as Mr. Musk puts it:

    ↩

  8. It’s all thermodynamics, all the way down.


    ↩
  9. Notice the little bump in the road?

    Indeed, TFR >3.5 = societal prosperity and optimism! Likewise, TFR <3.5 = societal pessimism and decay:

    But don’t feel bad, even though we’ve been “underwater” for 50+ years and counting, it’s nothing Marcus Aurelius wasn’t worried about when Christ was born… and it still took Odoacer another 4 centuries to seal the deal on the Roman Empire (and the Eastern Empire survived for another 1`000 years after that). So there’s still time to dance! ↩

  10. It’s okay, what goes around comes around:

    ↩

  11. Goodness knows that if Marcus Aurelius couldn’t pump TFR sustainably higher that we don’t have much of a fighting chance. ↩

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *