Moon Bag Gedankenexperiment


Dream NFT Collection - September 2021 (2)

Let’s dream a little, shall we?

Let’s imagine a simple Gedankenexperiment wherein all of our NFT bags go to the moon equally and in perfect lockstep with one another, so that basically everything in our portfolios/collections goes 100x in the next 6 months, retraces -75% to bottom out sometime in 2023, then goes 100x from there in 2025 when the Louvre, Guggenheim, and Hermitage simultaneously decide to sell all their physical works to focus exclusively on digital art and collectables going forward. Got it? Now what are you packing?i

This then becomes a question of resonance, ie. what speaks to us in this moment?ii What makes us feel excited, angry, happy, sad, wistful, curious, awe, or just goddam alive? What vibrates on the same frequency as we do, whether it’s NFT art or a particular coin? Maybe it’s Dogecoin… and that’s okay if it is! Doge is arguably the first NFT, so I get it. But maybe it’s a whole bunch of things, some “affordable”… some not. But imagining that we could at least own fractions of all of our moon bags, what’s it gonna be, punk?

I’ll go first and you’re welcome to leave your personal moon bags in the comments. Without further ado:

And what’s your dream, little dreamer?iii

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  1. Thinking about our “investments” in this utopian way is arguably the only way to remove the oft-decried excessively speculative nature of this space. Contra “The Land Grab Thesis,” and the whole Giga Chad Ego and FOMO that go with it. Just for a few minutes!!!
  2. Of course the question of “resonance” is deeply complicated and highly personal. But since everything is energy, where should we draw the line even if just for this fun little Gedankenexperiment ? Maybe it’s with one’s family history and lived experience. Or perhaps it’s with the experience of one’s tribe or culture. Or one’s peers and idols? You may choose your own adventure today, now as ever, but I’ll be continuing with the first one, to the extent that lines can be drawn at all… 
  3. Of course my current NFT collection is not a perfect mirror of this Gedankenexperiment for a variety of reasons:
    1) My collection has been amassed over six (long) months and this list above is just a snapshot in time;
    2) Perfect in-the-moment emotional resonance isn’t always (is rarely?) the objective of a collection, for there can indeed be pieces that we invest in with just a gut feeling or an intuition, and that we later grow into adoring and connecting with very deeply (or not…), so, as with the rest of “tradition,” we invest in the hope that one day it will all finally “click” and make sense (or not…), but better to have that insurance in place; and
    3) Investment performance matters in the real world! Of course it’s not everything but it’s still something, though I have to admit that it’s less and less a factor, which is really the phenomenon that this whole article is trying to dig deeper into.

    Though a potentially interesting counter-Gedankenexperiment would be: what are you packing if you only care about alpha?

One thought on “Moon Bag Gedankenexperiment

  1. […] certainly done our fair share of “moonbag gendankenexperiments” on these pages previously, but now let’s try looking waaayyyy further out: let’s […]

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