With the hotlyi contested US Presidential Election upcoming this week, much is being made on X about Elon’s Caesar’s plans to join Trump’s Catiline’sii incoming Cabinet as head of the “Department Of Government Efficiency” aka. DOGE.iii
Cheeky reference to the OG Dogcoin notwithstanding, how realistic is the concept of Herr Musk doing to bloated government bureaucracy what he did to Twitter/X, viz. turf 80% of pre-existing staff and rehire if and only if performance starts to suffer?
At least in the 2025-2030 window: not good! To quote Sir Gromen (emphasis added):
Magnanimous Maxi: [DOGE] thought exercise: You slash 80% of US govt spending ex military, entitlements, and interest. And you also cut taxes by 20%.
Luke Gromen: Well, military ($900B), entitlements ($3.7T incl VA), & interest ($1.4T) are presently $6.0T of $6.9T in spending this year. So slash 80% of $900B = $720B in cuts (3% of GDP)… & cutting taxes by 20% = receipts down 20% = receipts now $4T instead of $5T…so Interest + Entitlements alone are 125% of receipts, so either the US prints the money to pay Interest + Entitlements, or defaults on Entitlements or USTs, immediately. Have to get debt/GDP down a ton first by devaluing the debt.
Translation: we first need Bitcoin @ $1mn/coin and Gold @ $20k/oz! Which will take 5-10 years? Then we can choppy-chop the deadwood. And that timing should also work out rather nicely on a few other fronts – weaving together a sufficient number of threads with which to fashion the sociopolitical tapestry of the future – because by the time 2035 rolls around, Elon could very well have thousands of Starlink/ASI-powerediv Optimus divisionsv ready to cross the Potomac and march on Washington DC.
So nevermind Project 2025. That’s too soon. We need the better part of a decade of high asset price inflation (with a probable Civil War Redux if wages don’t follow?), devaluation of USG debts, and then a reshaping of the International and Institutional Order. If it all plays out along these lines, in the 2035+ window the US will be a veritable force on the world’s stage once more.
Now, to pass through the great filter between here and there…
- Polymarket has Trump with the edge currently… 54-46… but it’s still no BitBet!
- “O tempora, o mores!”
(“Oh the times! Oh the customs!”) indeed! ↩ -
Department of Government Efficiency
pic.twitter.com/mlI25deCBn— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 2, 2024
- After Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) comes Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), which will look like 10 GW / $1 Trillion clusters structured like a combination of Fort Knox and the Manhattan Project. But don’t take my word for it, take it from the front lines via 22-year-old(!) Leopold Aschenbrenner :
- An infantry division is call it 10,000 units. Activate the Droids indeed!